Note: This post was written in January 2016 but remained unpublished because it made bold predictions which could backfire if they didn't come true. The election of Donald Trump, Brexit, and the Deutsche bank crisis of 2016 help validate the general plausibility of the predictions made here, which were arrived at by combining the Law of Social Cycles and Adam Smith's maxims on real value and economics into a model that predicts crisis and future events.

Note: This post was written in January 2016 but remained unpublished because it made bold predictions which could backfire if they didn't come true. The election of Donald Trump, Brexit, and the Deutsche bank crisis of 2016 help validate the general plausibility of the predictions made here. These predictions were made by combining the Law of Social Cycles and Adam Smith's maxims into a single predictive model.

Welcome to the Pre-Crisis Years (2016-2018)

by Juan
originally January 12, 2016
revised 2017 removing reference to TPP and Middle East


In my earlier posts, I designated 2019 as the start of a global stagflation. This stagflation will increase from 2020 onwards up to 2027 to 2030 when it will reach its peak, culminating in some kind of conflict. A stagflation is a phenomenon which has low employment and output while having high prices at the same time.



Stagflation vs Depression


Normally, a low employment and low output phenomenon is called a recession and a long recession is called a depression. In a recession or depression, people do not buy or cannot buy, so prices do not rise, hence there is no inflation. However, in a stagflation, there is both a recession and rising prices. This is unnatural, and is only possible if there is high inequality. In both a depression and stagflation, ordinary people do not buy and cannot buy. But in a stagflation, the ultra rich can still buy so they can still cause inflation.


In the 1970's those rich were the oil companies and the Arab states who suddenly became rich from having more petrodollars from rising oil prices, and the dictators of Latin American countries who suddenly got a lot of loans from those excess petrodollars.

phil-irannenneee1

A visit by Imelda Marcos to the Shah's Iran in 1971. The shah was deposed in 1979 while Marcos was overthrown in 1986 after plunging their countries into poverty

Those ultra rich dicatators could no longer cause inflation when their debts imploded in the early 80's, causing the Latin American Debt Crisis and, properly, the 1980's recession.


The end effect depressions and stagflations are conflicts or wars, since they are the only ways for the mind to naturally relieve itself of the oppression from inequality. This in turn is caused by the fact that our species evolved from monkeys and monkeys do not want inequality. The 1930's Depression was relieved by World War 2 and the 1970's Stagflation was relieved by the Arab-Israeli conflict and global Communist insurgency.



Secular Stagnation is here but real Stagflation is still coming.


The stagflation of the 1970's where characterized by high oil prices and high inflation. My model predicts that this will also happen after 2020. When I first made this model in 2013, I did not know how oil prices could possibly rise like the 1970's when in fact it has been declining since July 2014. However, the recent conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two largest oil producers, solves this puzzle and serves to fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

Update 1/2017: Oil prices are still rising



Update August 2017: A Slight Change


Mid-way into 2017, I was wondering why oil prices have not risen as fast as predicted. It soon became obvious that money was not being invested into companies, oil, or gold, or land as the traditional store of value, but into cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The rise of bitcoin in these 'pre-crisis years' still match our model very well.

It appears cryptocurrencies fulfill our prediction instead of oil



Update October 2017: Bitcoin breaks $5,000

The model is still on track as the bitcoin bubble is forming as expected.



Update Sept 2018: Bitcoin down to $6,200; Oil up to $67 (WTI at $78); S&P500 up to 2,877

The Bitcoin bubble has burst to be replaced by traditional bubbles in oil prices and stocks. It appears the Bitcoin bubble has pushed the traditional bubble forward by 3-6 months.


The red circle indicates the effect of crypto in delaying the rise of oil.



So What Are the Deeper Implications of a Global Stagflation?


If a global stagflation does start from 2019, culminating in 2027-2030, then it implies that economic activity follows a predictable pattern or cycles which are ultimately under the field of metaphysics. Buying and selling is based on desire and the roots or dynamics of desire lies in the study of metaphysics of the soul* and not in study of psychology or the brain. In the ancient past, prophets made predictions about future events using their intuition (without any scientific method) which later became true or not true. Our system provides a more scientific way of making predictions because it goes deep into the nature of human minds (even from its monkey-origins), societies, exchangeable value, etc. to find patterns based on real events and big data.



Edits:
Sep 2017 - added Shah and Marcos
Oct 2017 - updated wth bitcoin price
Sept 2018 - updated wth oil price
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